Over the past few days there have been uncorroborated reports dribbling out of southern Africa that armed Chinese soldiers have been sighted in Zimbabwe. And I mean more than a few observers of the joyful independence anniversary celebrations in Harare. Some even say that armed Chinese troops are patrolling the eastern city of Mutare with their local hosts, harassing MDC activists.

The Citizen reports this version of the story as coming from MDC spokesman Nelson Chamisa. Though since it was first posted the reference to “soldiers” has been removed and replaced with “10 armed Chinese men”. Beijing has said that the individuals concerned could simply be “security guards” protecting Chinese business interests.

But others are more forthright. For example, a report of 10 People’s Army army soldiers openly carrying sidearms was published several days ago by David Baxter of the Association of Zimbabwe Journalists in the UK. The Harare correspondent of Afrik.com says 20 soldiers, and there are other reports, some of which at least could be more than the result of a game of Chinese whispers initiated by mischievous bloggers.

With no mobile phone snaps of armed Chinese troops in battle fatigues, and indeed nothing much in the way of evidence, we have to reserve judgement on this. But serious questions should be asked; e.g., would the MDC spread untruths on this scale when it could so easily come back to bite them in the bum?

If the reports are true, then my guess is that the People’s Army soldiers are a liaison group whose visible presence on the streets of Mutare and billeting in the local Holiday Inn is intended to make a political statement. Ten soldiers does not even a single platoon make, so their impact as a fighting force would be negligible.

As for the question in the title above, many might answer “Of course!”. But it is as well to define exactly what we mean by these words, and the degree of subservience involved: political, economic and military. Often the term is used so loosely as to render it meaningless.

China is the only true friend the regime in Harare has left in the world, and Mugabe surely cannot rely for much longer on the South African government. China has for a long time in the international community been stymieing a political resolution to the Zimbabwe crisis. So another question is: exactly how far will Beijing go to protect its geopolitical and business interests in Zimbabwe?

Zimbabwe looks to be heading for a military coup, with or without active support from Chinese forces. And the lack of mainstream media reporting of the situation beyond that of Mugabe and Tsvangirai’s latest speeches is very frustrating. I wonder if anyone knows what’s going on beyond those with direct access to military and signals intelligence.