Nouri al-Maliki, the Prime Minister of Iraq, appears to be making a calculated gamble to secure the future of Iraq. His decision to disarm and neuter Shia militias in Basra using Iraqi forces alone is, if the plan is carried through completely, the sister to the US troop surge.

When things started to go wrong in Iraq in late 2003-2004, many sagely heads wisely pointed out that the UK forces were doing far better than the US forces because of their past experiences in Northern Ireland. However, the US has since learned counter-insurgency the hard way in Iraq, and it has been clear for some time that the UK’s efforts in Southern Iraq, or more specifically Basra, have not been as successful as was hoped. While the surge further North has largely quelled insurgents, the South has become more lawless.

However, the religious zealots are much weaker than they once were. Many Iraqis no longer see religion as the answer, and the horrors of the past few years may have led many to yearn for security from a strong central government. The operation in Basra may be Iraq’s Altalena moment as al-Maliki, like Ben-Gurion before him, realises that there is no future for armed militias in maintaining the security of a state and determining political facts affecting the future of the state.

Even commentators normally blind to promising developments in Iraq note the signal this Basra surge sends:

So if the al-Maliki government is really having a big push on Basra with 15,000 of its own troops, then that is actually a very positive sign indeed in terms of the government’s subjective assessment of its own stability.

Although Sadr’s men are fighting back in Basra, Sadr’s initial response appears to betray a lack of confidence in his own position. He has threatened a nationwide campaign of civil disobedience. What next harsh language?

Six days ago, Seamus Milne wrote:

only when the occupation forces make an unequivocal commitment to leave will Iraq’s main political and military players be compelled to come to an accommodation.

Milne is correct that Iraq’s political and military players will have to come to some accommodation. The nature of the accommodation in al-Maliki’s eyes is becoming clearer. We can only hope that the Basra surge succeeds.

UPDATE: Michael O’Hanlon, and others, are less convinced.